Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at 0817 DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-2-3
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.6%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1393
· median 1393
· range 1393–1393
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1067
Q1 1180
Q3 1391
1694
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 44.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.7% | -8.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.7% | -8.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Water Fractal | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 7.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
